F
36%
Total crime NAT. AVG.
106%
Violent crime NAT. AVG.
23%
Property crime NAT. AVG.
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Date & Last Updated: This data reflects the 2022 calendar year and was released from the FBI in September, 2023; this is the most current data available.
StatisticReportedincidents/100k peopleModesto/100k peopleCalifornia/100k peopleNational/100k people
Total crime6,933n/a (estimate)3,1652,8432,324
Murder10n/a4.65.76.3
Rape111n/a50.737.440.0
Robbery292n/a133.3123.566.1
Assault1,256n/a573.3332.8268.2
Violent crime1,669n/a (estimate)762500370
Burglary582n/a265.7371.9269.8
Theft3,891n/a1,776.01,499.31,401.9
Vehicle theft791n/a361.0471.9282.7
Property crime5,264n/a (estimate)2,4032,3431,954

An Overview of Crime Rates in Modesto, CA

Crime can be categorized into two primary types: violent and property crimes. Violent crimes encompass offenses such as murder, rape, robbery, and assault, whereas property crimes involve acts like burglary, theft, and vehicle theft. The overall crime rate in Modesto is 36.2% higher than the national average. Specifically, there were 1669 violent crimes reported in Modesto, equivalent to 762 per 100,000 residents, which is higher than the national average by 106%. Additionally, Modesto recorded 5264 property crimes, amounting to 2403 per 100,000 people, higher than the national average by 22.9%.

With a violent crime rate of 762 crimes per 100,000 residents, Modesto is known as one of the most dangerous cities in the United States. In fact, Modesto ranks in the bottom 10% of all cities that reported violent crime last year. This translates into a 1 in 132 chance of becoming a victim of a violent crime. Keep in mind that some areas will be safer than others and this doesn't necessarily mean that the entire city suffers from a high violent crime rate.

What Do the Locals Say About Crime in Modesto?

What is the prevailing sentiment among Modesto residents regarding the state of crime? A comprehensive survey conducted by AreaVibes, involving 173 respondents, sheds light on this matter. The results were as follows: 29% of Modesto residents expressed a notable sense of security, asserting that crime was virtually non-existent in their community, and they felt at ease strolling the streets after dark. While, 71% of those surveyed held a contrasting viewpoint, perceiving a higher incidence of crime, leading them to feel apprehensive about walking alone at night.

Is Modesto a Safe Place to Live?

Determining whether Modesto is a place to live may not always yield a simple answer, given the city's varying safety levels across different areas. Nonetheless, comprehending the city's overall crime rate can be a valuable asset. In broad terms, Modesto has an overall crime rate that is 36% higher than the national average. When we take a look at crime on a daily basis, this translates into 18.99 daily occurrences, comprising 4.57 violent crimes and 14.42 property crimes. Scrutinizing these statistics provides a foundation for a more informed assessment of the suitability of Modesto as a potential place to establish residency.

Has Crime in Modesto Increased Since Last Year?

Examining year-over-year crime data provides insights into short-term trends with regards to the crime activity in Modesto. This analysis involves comparing crime rates from one year to the next, enabling the identification of patterns and fluctuations in crime. Such information proves invaluable to residents seeking to make well-informed decisions about their choice of residence. In the most recent year, compared to the previous one, total crime in Modesto has decreased by 0.1%. Specifically, violent crime has increased by 4.1%, while property crime has decreased by 1.4%. This data empowers individuals with a clearer understanding of the evolving safety landscape in Modesto.

Potential Causes for Crime in Modesto

High cost of living can lead to economic stress for individuals and families, particularly those with limited financial resources. When people struggle to make ends meet due to high housing costs, healthcare expenses, or other basic necessities, they may be more inclined to engage in criminal activities, such as theft or fraud, as a means of financial survival. On the flipside, cities that have a lower cost of living, could see a reduced crime rate. In Modesto, the cost of living is 11.46% higher than the national average.

Modesto has a ratio of police officers and civilians per 1,000 residents that differs from the national norm, with 1.42 officers and civilians per 1,000 residents, compared to 3.25 nationwide. Crime rates are profoundly influenced by the effectiveness of law enforcement and community policing endeavors. A resilient and cooperative partnership between law enforcement agencies and the community can serve as a deterrent to criminal activities, ultimately enhancing safety. The efficacy of law enforcement extends beyond mere numbers and extends into the realm of community policing strategies, emphasizing the cultivation of trust and collaboration between officers and the community. It is not merely a matter of quantity but the quality of engagement with the community that matters most.

The median home price in Modesto is $300,700, compared to the national average of $184,700. High housing costs can lead to financial stress for residents. When individuals struggle to make ends meet due to expensive housing, they may be more inclined to engage in criminal activities to address their financial difficulties, such as theft or fraud. Communities with stable housing environments tend to foster stronger social bonds and community engagement. This can lead to increased vigilance and cooperation among residents, which can deter criminal behavior.

Modesto crime map



The Modesto crime map provides a detailed overview of all crimes in Modesto as reported by the local law enforcement agencies. Based on the color coded legend above, the crime map outlines the areas with lower crime compared to the areas with higher crime. The Modesto crime heat map offers insight into the total crimes on a block group level. Please note that the red areas on the Modesto crime map does not always indicate that it is a dangerous area for its residents. Areas on the heat map could be inflated if they are located in high traffic areas like airports, sports centers or large parks. Other areas on the heat map could see increased crime rates if they are located in major tourist areas like the downtown core.
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Crime Quick Facts

  • Modesto crime rates are 36% higher than the national average
  • Violent crimes in Modesto are 106% higher than the national average
  • In Modesto you have a 1 in 32 chance of becoming a victim of crime
  • Modesto is safer than 9% of the cities in the United States
  • Year over year crime in Modesto has decreased by 1%

Modesto, CA Crime Quiz

     

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        Daily Crime In Modesto (per 100,000 people)

        The chart above shows the number of daily crimes in Modesto, CA per 100,000 people. In Modesto, the number of daily crimes is projected to be 1.11 times more than the California average and 1.36 times more than the national average. The average number of daily violent crimes in Modesto is 1.53 times more than the California average and 2.06 times more than the daily national average. With regards to property crimes, Modesto has a daily crime rate that is 1.03 times more than the California average and 1.23 times more than the overall daily national average.

        How Safe is Modesto (higher is better)

        What are the odds that you'll be safer in Modesto, California compared to other areas of California, as well as the rest of America? When it comes down to it, is Modesto safe? In the graphs above, it shows that Modesto is safer than 13% of California cities, and 9% compared to all other cities across America. These statistics are calculated by taking a closer look at each city's crime rate in California, as well as the rest of the US. It is then determined which cities see less crime than Modesto. At this time, Modesto sees a above average rate of crime in comparison to other United States cities.

        Chance of Being A Victim of Crime in Modesto

        The chance of being a victim of violent crime in Modesto is 1 in 132
        The chance of being a victim of property crime in Modesto is 1 in 42
        The chance of being a victim of crime in Modesto is 1 in 32
        Wondering what the chances are that you fall victim to a crime in Modesto? In Modesto, CA you have a 1 in 132 chance of becoming a victim of violent crime. Violent crimes include murder, rape, robbery and assault. With regards to property crime, you have a 1 in 42 chance of becoming a victim. Property crimes include burglary, theft and motor vehicle theft. Overall, you have a 1 in 32 chance of becoming a victim of crime in Modesto.

        Year Over Year Crime In Modesto (per 100,000 people)

        A good indicator of whether Modesto is becoming a safer or a more dangerous place to live can be determined by analyzing the year over year crime rate (per 100,000 people). The number of violent crimes in Modesto has increased by 3%, while the property crime rate in Modesto has decreased by 3% year over year. The number of total crimes in Modesto has decreased by 1% year over year.

        Modesto police department

        Item Modesto California National
        Law enforcement employees (officers & civilians)29151,506558,732
        Police officers & civilians /1000 residents1.43.63.3
        There are a total of 291 Modesto police officers. This results in 1.4 police officers per 1,000 residents which is 60.6% less than the California average and 56.3% less than the National average.

        Sex offenders in California

        State Total offenders California /100K National /100K
        California79,891232266
        There are a total of 79,891 sex offenders in California. This yields a total of 232 sex offenders in California per 100,000 residents which is 13% less than the national average.

        Nearby Cities With Low Crime Rates

        City Population Violent crime/100k people Property crime/100k people Total crime/100k people
        Del Rio, CA1,24170329399
        Hughson, CA7,54527689716
        East Oakdale, CA2,370146685831
        Waterford, CA8,884218773991
        Ripon, CA16,0491491,1671,316
        Airport, CA1,2762811,3151,596
        Parklawn, CA1,8442811,3151,596
        Modesto, CA214,4857622,4033,165

        Cities with similar population

        City Population Violent crime/100k people Property crime/100k people Total crime/100k people
        Enterprise, NV214,5914182,1912,609
        Des Moines, IA215,4084281,9932,421
        Tacoma, WA215,7661,6108,54010,149
        Fontana, CA212,7042871,2871,574
        Santa Clarita, CA212,5191631,0911,254
        Modesto, CA214,4857622,4033,165
        Source: The Modesto, CA crime data displayed above is derived from the FBI's uniform crime reports for the year of 2022. The crime report encompasses more than 18,000 city and state law enforcement agencies reporting data on property and violent crimes. The uniform crime reports program represents approximately 309 million American residents, which results in 98% coverage of metropolitan statistical areas.